editor’s note: this article English texts in the issue of fortune.
people always spend large sums of money to consulting giants, help them to identify the future trend of the development of science and technology. This is a kind of way, but maybe you can from the McKinsey Global Institute (McKinsey Global Institute) internal think-tanks get an answer in writing a new book.
“is not a normal: The disintegration of The world’s top Four Forces are Breaking All The Trends (No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends)” by McKinsey director Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel creation, reveals The next 10 years will have a huge impact on business, science and technology. Below, we will list the list of “subversion”, the authors believe that they are the most subversive state of today’s commercial potential:
1. Energy storage technology
the authors forecast the future 10 years, lithium battery prices would fall by a third, which not only has a great influence on the electric car, also is of great significance for renewable energy storage. At the same time, because the battery become cheaper durable, transportation, power generation and oil and gas industry will also benefit.
2. Gene technology
a supercomputer makes the complex genetic analysis work easier, the authors predict “by 2025, will be based on the genetic basis of disease diagnosis, and treatment, can prolong the patient’s life 6 months to 2 years.” Gene sequencing will become very common, doctors can put the data is stored in a computer.
3. Advanced materials
the molecular level of technical operations have been used in many products, such as sunglasses, bicycle frame and medical equipment. Scientists of many substances under the control of nanotechnology has reached new heights, understand and use of a higher level. For security reasons, Dunkin ‘so (hunting cloud network note: Dunkin Donuts, Donuts brand) to nanometer materials out of their food. But some advanced nanometer material showed their brighter prospects in the field of health care and cure cancer. Soon after, have self healing, self cleaning material and shape memory function will be available.
4. Driverless cars
driverless cars are close to our life. By 2025, the authors wrote “unmanned revolution” will be “going well”. If the U.S. government can adapt and promote the technology, the development will be faster. By the way: some BMW cars can already do no parking.
5. Renewable energy
although and fossil energy, wind energy and solar energy have never received much attention, but predicted the situation will be broken due to technological development. In the past decade, the use of solar energy costs have dropped by 10 times. The iea (International Energy Agency) prediction: by 2050, solar Energy will replace fossil Energy become the biggest power resources.
6. Advanced robot
robot is coming! “Two years from 2009 to 2011, industrial robot sales rose by 170%,” wrote in the book, and points out that the industrial profit for the year will exceed $40 billion by 2020. Due to the robot is more and more cheap, flexible, and security, in the field of manufacturing, maintenance, cleaning, and surgery, of the human will be the perfect replacement.
7.3 D printing
much-hyped 3 d technology has not been able to replace the traditional manufacturing technology, however, as the system optimization, the situation will be broken. “In the future, 3 d printing can be redefined in physical sales and distribution,” the authors said. Imagine that you bought a shoe of drawings, and print it at home. Book pointed out that “the future will be” democratization “of production mode, because consumers and companies are starting to print their own products.”
8. Mobile network
mobile applications have greatly changed our life, and our career. Two-thirds of the people on the earth have smart phone, the remaining 23 billion is likely in the next ten years with smartphones. The result will be: spending on the Internet would be more than agriculture and energy, and continue to grow.
9. Culture industry automation
is not only a production manufacturing work can be replaced by robots and 3 d printers, Dobbs, Manyika and Woetzel said: by 2025, a computer can finish the work of 140 million cultural industry workers. If the computer could be in jeopardy Watson (Columbia trivia game), from the world of the law to the tournament, what can stop the computer work of other cultural industries?
at present, 99% of the items have not been connected to the “Internet of things”. This phenomenon will not last long. In the future, more items and tools can be controlled via the Internet, then generate different types of data. In addition to health equipment can through the sensors to collect data, perhaps also generates the structure integrity of Bridges, let the induction cooker can also collect data about temperature.
the development of cloud technology will change the developing mode of small businesses and start-ups. Small companies can also “at cheap prices, before you get only big company can obtain information technology ability and back-end services.” The authors write, “in fact, every big company in the field of is very fragile, and start-up has better adaptability, more competitive, customers can be obtained in a larger range.”
12. Advanced oil and gas exploration technology
the iea (International Energy Agency) predicts that by 2020, the United States will become the world’s largest oil producer, this is due to the United States has the advanced hydraulic crushing method and other mining technology, making it difficult to mining of oil produced economic significance. McKinsey directors to predict oil extraction process simplification pattern will also affect the international market.